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Thursday, February 04, 2021

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 779,000

by Calculated Risk on 2/04/2021 08:40:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending January 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 779,000, a decrease of 33,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 35,000 from 847,000 to 812,000. The 4-week moving average was 848,250, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 18,500 from 868,000 to 849,500.
emphasis added
This does not include the 348,912 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 403,590 the previous week.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 848,250.

The previous week was revised down.

The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week).

At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.

Regular state continued claims decreased to 5,188,141 (SA) from 5,446,993 (SA) the previous week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.

Note: There are an additional 7,217,713 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 7,343,682 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.