by Calculated Risk on 2/04/2021 09:30:00 PM

My January Employment Preview

Goldman January Payrolls Preview

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for January.   The consensus is for 50 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 6.7%.  There were 140 thousand jobs lost in December, and the unemployment rate was at 6.7%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms through November.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and the worst in terms of the unemployment rate.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for December from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $65.7 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $68.1 billion in November.