by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2020 12:56:00 PM

There are a wide range of estimates, especially on house prices in 2021, with price forecasts ranging from increases of 2% to 10%.  These forecasts use different measures, but that is a very wide spread.

The key in 2021 will be inventory.  If inventory stays extremely low, there will be more housing starts and a larger increase in prices.  However, if inventory increases significantly, there will be fewer starts and less price appreciation. 

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year.

The table below shows a few forecasts for 2021:

From Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast: December 2020

From Freddie Mac: Freddie Mac Quarterly Forecast: Housing Market Continues to Rebound as Mortgage Rates Hover at Record Lows

From NAHB: Housing and Interest Rate Forecast, 12/8/2020

From NAR: 2020 Real Estate Forecast Summit

From Wells Fargo: 2021 Annual Economic Outlook

Note: For comparison, new home sales in 2020 will probably be around 845 thousand, and total housing starts around 1.375 million.

Housing Forecasts for 2021
	New Home Sales (000s)	Single Family Starts (000s)	Total Starts (000s)	House Prices1
Fannie Mae	872	1,107	1,444	2.1%2
Freddie Mac				2.6%2
Goldman Sachs	736		1,440	3.7%
MBA	960	1,121	1,473	2.0%2
Merrill Lynch	950		1,500	4.0%
NAHB	884	1,034	1,383
NAR			1,500	8.0%3
Wells Fargo			1,440
Zillow				10.3%4
1Case-Shiller unless indicated otherwise 2FHFA Purchase-Only Index 3NAR Median Prices 4Zillow HPI