Friday, December 18, 2020

Update: 2021 Housing Forecasts

by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2020 12:56:00 PM

There are a wide range of estimates, especially on house prices in 2021, with price forecasts ranging from increases of 2% to 10%.  These forecasts use different measures, but that is a very wide spread.

The key in 2021 will be inventory.  If inventory stays extremely low, there will be more housing starts and a larger increase in prices.  However, if inventory increases significantly, there will be fewer starts and less price appreciation. 

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year.

The table below shows a few forecasts for 2021:

From Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast: December 2020

From Freddie Mac: Freddie Mac Quarterly Forecast: Housing Market Continues to Rebound as Mortgage Rates Hover at Record Lows

From NAHB: Housing and Interest Rate Forecast, 12/8/2020

From NAR: 2020 Real Estate Forecast Summit

From Wells Fargo: 2021 Annual Economic Outlook

Note: For comparison, new home sales in 2020 will probably be around 845 thousand, and total housing starts around 1.375 million.

Housing Forecasts for 2021
New Home Sales (000s)Single Family Starts (000s)Total Starts (000s)House Prices1
Fannie
Mae
8721,1071,4442.1%2
Freddie
Mac



2.6%2
Goldman Sachs736
1,4403.7%
MBA 9601,1211,4732.0%2
Merrill
Lynch
950
1,5004.0%
NAHB8841,0341,383
NAR

1,5008.0%3
Wells Fargo
1,440
Zillow


10.3%4
1Case-Shiller unless indicated otherwise
2FHFA Purchase-Only Index
3NAR Median Prices
4Zillow HPI