Monday, December 07, 2020

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased in November

by Calculated Risk on 12/07/2020 01:35:00 PM

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Steps Lower in November

The Dodge Momentum Index fell 2.6% in November to 123.3 (2000=100) from the revised October reading of 126.5. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. The institutional component of the Momentum Index fell 4.4%, while the commercial component lost 1.6%.

Since the expiration of support programs in the CARES Act, the economy has struggled to maintain traction and in its wake planning for nonresidential building projects has slowed. As the next wave of COVID-19 infections quickly approaches economic growth and job gains will ease further. Additionally, uncertainty over the potential for further federal stimulus has significantly complicated the recovery and will continue to negatively impact nonresidential building throughout the planning and construction processes.
emphasis added
Dodge Momentum Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 123.3 in November, down from 126.5 in October.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".  This index suggests a decline in Commercial Real Estate construction through most of 2021.