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Friday, November 27, 2020

Q4 GDP Forecasts: Some Upward Revisions

by Calculated Risk on 11/27/2020 12:14:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

4Q GDP tracking jumped to 6.0% qoq saar as strong consumer, capex, housing and inventories data in October kicked the quarter off to a solid start. [Nov 25 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.8% for 2020:Q4. News from this week’s data releases decreased the nowcast by 0.1 percentage point. [Nov 27 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 11.0 percent on November 25, up from 5.6 percent on November 18. [Nov 25 estimate]