Tuesday, November 17, 2020

NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 90 in November, Record High

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2020 10:06:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 90, up from 85 in October. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From the NAHB: Sales Growth Lifts Builder Confidence to New Record High

In another sign that housing continues to lead the economy forward, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes increased five points to 90 in November, shattering the previous all-time of 85 recorded in October, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. Builder confidence levels have hit successive all-time highs over the past three months.

“Historically low mortgage rates, favorable demographics and an ongoing suburban shift for home buyer preferences have spurred demand and increased new home sales by nearly 17% in 2020 on a year-to-date basis,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. “Though builders continue to sign sales contracts at a solid pace, lot and material availability is holding back some building activity. Looking ahead to next year, regulatory policy risk will be a key concern given these supply-side constraints.”

“Another record high for the HMI reflects that housing is a bright spot for the economy,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “However, affordability remains an ongoing concern, as construction costs continue to rise and interest rates are expected to move higher as more positive news emerges on the coronavirus vaccine front. In the short run, the shift of housing demand to lower density markets such as suburbs and exurbs with ongoing low resale inventory levels is supporting demand for home building.”
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All the HMI indices posted their highest readings ever in November. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions rose six points to 96, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased one point to 89 and the measure charting traffic of prospective buyers rose three points to 77.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased two points to 83, the Midwest jumped six points to 80, the South rose four points to 86 and the West increased four points to 94.
NAHB HMI Click on graph for larger image.

This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was above the consensus forecast.

Housing and homebuilding have been one of the best performing sectors during the pandemic.