Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Industrial Production Increased 1.1 Percent in October; 5.6% Below Pre-Crisis Level

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2020 09:27:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production rose 1.1 percent in October. The index has recovered much of its 16.5 percent decline from February to April, but output in October was still 5.6 percent lower than its pre-pandemic February level. After edging up 0.1 percent in September, manufacturing output increased 1.0 percent in October. The output of utilities rose 3.9 percent, while the output at mines declined 0.6 percent to a level that was 14.4 percent below its year-earlier reading. At 103.2 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 5.3 percent lower in October than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.8 percentage point in October to 72.8 percent, a rate that is 7.0 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2019) average but 8.6 percentage points above its low in April.
emphasis added
Capacity Utilization Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April, but still well below the level in February 2020.

Capacity utilization at 72.8% is 7.0% below the average from 1972 to 2017.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Industrial ProductionThe second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased in October to  103.2. This is 5.6% below the February 2020 level.

The change in industrial production was close to  consensus expectations, and industrial production in August and September were revised up.