Thursday, May 14, 2020

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 2,981,000

by Calculated Risk on 5/14/2020 08:35:00 AM

UPDATE: From Bloomberg: U.S. Jobless Claims in Millions Again, Connecticut Corrects Data

Later in the day, however, Connecticut corrected its figure to show 29,846 claims, rather than the 298,680 shown in the federal report, indicating an error inflated the national figures.
The DOL reported:
In the week ending May 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 2,981,000, a decrease of 195,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 7,000 from 3,169,000 to 3,176,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,616,500, a decrease of 564,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 7,000 from 4,173,500 to 4,180,500.
emphasis added
The previous week was revised up.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 4,173,500.

This was higher than the consensus forecast of 2.5 million.

The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week while increasing sharply).

At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.

Continued claims have already increased to a new record high of 22.833 million (SA) and will increase further over the next couple of weeks - and likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.