Friday, May 29, 2020

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Probably Around 40% Annual Rate Decline

by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2020 11:44:00 AM

Important: GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). So a 40% Q2 decline is around 9% decline from Q1 (SA).

From Merrill Lynch:

Better than expected capex data edged up 2Q GDP tracking to -39.7% qoq saar. [May 29 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at -35.5% for 2020:Q2. [May 29 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -51.2 percent on May 29, down from -40.4 percent on May 28. [May 29 estimate]