Friday, March 06, 2020

Q1 GDP Forecasts: 0.7% to 3.1%

by Calculated Risk on 3/06/2020 02:52:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

We mark to market our 1Q GDP forecast up to 1.5% from 1.0%, while taking down 2Q GDP by 0.6pp to 1.0% and 3Q GDP 0.2pp to 1.4%, reflecting wider disruption from the COVID-19 spread. [Mar 6 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
Based on the downward revision to January wholesale inventories and the declines in US and global trade volumes, we lowered our Q1 GDP growth forecast by two-tenths to +0.7% (qoq ar). [Mar 6 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.7% for 2020:Q1 and 1.3% for 2020:Q2 [Mar 6 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 3.1 percent on March 6, up from 2.7 percent on March 2. [Mar 6 estimate]
CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be between 0.7% and 3.1% annualized in Q1.