Wednesday, February 26, 2020

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: House Price Gains "Back on the Gas"

by Calculated Risk on 2/26/2020 04:58:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for December were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: December Case-Shiller Results & January Forecast: Back on the Gas

The final reading of 2019 confirmed that a reacceleration of home price growth has indeed begun, after growth spent nearly the entire calendar year tapping on the brakes.

The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 3.8% year-over-year in December. The smaller 10- and 20-city composite indices grew more slowly, at 2.4% and 2.9% year-over-year, respectively.
...
For-sale inventory remains near its lowest level on record, which has stoked competition for the relatively few homes on the market and nudged prices back upward as a result. The rebound in home price growth is also rooted in the sustained strength of the U.S. economy, which continues to ride a robust labor market, and mortgage rates that finished the year near their lowest levels since 2016 and have fallen even further since.
emphasis added
Zillow forecast for Case-Shiller The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 4.0% in January, up from 3.8% in December.

The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to be up 3.2% YoY in January from 2.9% in December, and for the 10-City index to increase to 2.8% YoY compared to 2.4% YoY in December.