Friday, February 07, 2020

The Headline Job Streak Survives, The ex-Census Job Streak Ended in 2019

by Calculated Risk on 2/07/2020 02:58:00 PM

A few weeks ago I wrote The Record Job Streak: A few Comments. I noted that the streak of consecutive positive headline job reports had reached 111 months, but the streak might be over when the annual benchmark revision was released.

The headline job streak lives!

With the benchmark revision, February 2019 was revised down to +1 thousand jobs added - so the streak barely survived - and the streak is now at 112 months. If the headline job streak continues into 2020, then the headline streak will probably end in June 2020 when a large number of temporary Census workers are let go.

The job streak ex-Census was even longer (adjusting for temporary Census hires).  Prior to the benchmark release, the ex-Census streak was at 118 months.  However, with the revisions, the ex-Census job streak ended in February 2019 at 107 months.  It is possible that the ex-Census streak will be resurrected with the next benchmark release, but for now it is over.