Friday, February 07, 2020

Q1 GDP Forecasts: 1.0% to 2.7%

by Calculated Risk on 2/07/2020 12:29:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

We are forecasting 1.0% for 1Q. [Feb 7 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.7% for 2020:Q1. [Feb 7 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 2.7 percent on February 7, down from 2.9 percent on February 5. [Feb 7 estimate]
CR Note: These very early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be between 1.0% and 2.7% annualized in Q1.