Friday, February 21, 2020

Q1 GDP Forecasts: 0.7% to 2.6%

by Calculated Risk on 2/21/2020 11:33:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

We are tracking 0.7% qoq saar for 1Q GDP and 2.0% for 4Q. [Feb 21 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
we raised our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +1.5%. [Feb 19 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.0% for 2020:Q1. News from this week’s data increased the nowcast for 2020:Q1 by 0.6 percentage point. Positive surprises from regional survey and housing data drove most of the increase. [Feb 21 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 2.6 percent on February 19, up from 2.4 percent on February 14. [Feb 19 estimate]
CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be between 0.7% and 2.6% annualized in Q1.