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Tuesday, February 18, 2020

Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield

by Calculated Risk on 2/18/2020 02:11:00 PM

With the ten year yield at 1.55%, and based on an historical relationship, 30-year rates should currently be around 3.5%.

Mortgage News Daily reports that the most prevalent 30 year fixed rate is now at 3.46% for top tier scenarios.

The graph shows the relationship between the monthly 10 year Treasury Yield and 30 year mortgage rates from the Freddie Mac survey.

Mortgage rates and 10 year Treasury YieldCurrently the 10 year Treasury yield is at 1.55%, and 30 year mortgage rates were at 3.46% according to the Freddie Mac survey last week - about as expected.

The record low in the Freddie Mac survey was 3.31% in November 2012 (Survey started in 1971).

To fall to 3.31% on the Freddie Mac survey, and based on the historical relationship, the Ten Year yield would have to fall to around 1.4% (but there is some variability in the relationship).