Monday, February 24, 2020

House Prices and Inventory

by Calculated Risk on 2/24/2020 01:06:00 PM

Watching existing home "for sale" inventory is very helpful. As an example, the increase in inventory in late 2005 helped me call the top for housing.

And the decrease in inventory eventually helped me correctly call the bottom for house prices in early 2012, see: The Housing Bottom is Here.

And in 2015, it appeared the inventory build in several markets was ending, and that boosted price increases. 

I don't have a crystal ball, but watching inventory helps understand the housing market.

Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph below shows existing home months-of-supply (from the NAR) vs. the seasonally adjusted month-to-month price change in the Case-Shiller National Index (both since January 1999).

There is a clear relationship, and this is no surprise (but interesting to graph).

If months-of-supply is high, price decline. If months-of-supply is low, prices rise.

In the existing home sales report released last week, the NAR reported months-of-supply at 3.1 months in January.

My current expectation is inventory will hold at low levels or decrease this year, and house price growth will increase compared to 2019.