Friday, January 24, 2020

Q4 GDP Forecasts: 1.2% to 2.2%

by Calculated Risk on 1/24/2020 12:49:00 PM

The preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP will be released on Thursday, January 30th. The consensus is that annualized real GDP increased 2.2% in Q4.

From Merrill Lynch

We expect GDP growth in 4Q to hold steady at 2.0% qoq saar. [Jan 24 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.2% for 2019:Q4 and 1.7% for 2020:Q1. [Jan 24 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.8 percent on January 17. [Jan 17 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be between 1.2% and 2.2% annualized in Q4.