Friday, January 03, 2020

Q4 GDP Forecasts: 1.1% to 2.3%

by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2020 01:00:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch

4Q tracking rose to 2.0% qoq saar, boosted by trade and inventories data. [Jan 3 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.1% for 2019:Q4 and 1.0% for 2020:Q1. [Jan 3 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 2.3 percent on January 3, unchanged from December 23. [Jan 3 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be between 1.1% and 2.3% annualized in Q4.