Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Personal Income increased Slightly in October, Spending increased 0.3%, Core PCE increase 0.1%

by Calculated Risk on 11/27/2019 10:12:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for October:

Personal income increased $3.3 billion (less than 0.1 percent) in October according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $12.6 billion (-0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $39.7 billion (0.3 percent).

Real DPI decreased 0.3 percent in October and Real PCE increased 0.1 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.
The October PCE price index increased 1.3 percent year-over-year and the October PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.6 percent year-over-year.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through October 2019 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Personal Consumption Expenditures Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

The increase in personal income was below expectations,  and the increase in PCE was at expectations.

Note that core PCE inflation was below expectations.