Friday, October 25, 2019

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Under 2.0%

by Calculated Risk on 10/25/2019 12:30:00 PM

The advance estimate for Q3 GDP will be released on Wednesday, October 30th. The consensus is real annualized GDP increased 1.6% in Q3.

From Merrill Lynch:

We expect the advance 3Q GDP report to reveal moderation in growth to 1.5% qoq saar from 2.0% in 2Q. [Oct 25 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
we left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.6% (qoq ar). [October 24 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.9% for 2019:Q3 and 0.9% for 2019:Q4. [Oct 25 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.8 percent on October 24 [Oct 24 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be under 2.0% annualized in Q3.