Friday, October 25, 2019

My Slide Deck: "2020 Economic Forecast featuring the UCI Paul Merage School of Business"

by Calculated Risk on 10/25/2019 01:05:00 PM

On Wednesday, I spoke at the Newport Chamber of Commerce 2020 Economist Forecast. It was sold out - thanks to all who attended (parking was a problem).

Here is most of the slide deck I presented.

I discussed the two most frequent questions I'm asked: Are house prices in a new bubble? And will there be a recession in the next 12 months.

I also discussed some commercial real estate sectors (but I was limited to 20 minutes).

The short answers are:

House prices might be a little elevated based on fundamentals, but there is very little speculation - and there is no Bubble 2.0.

And on a recession: Don't freak out about the yield curve - especially when the Fed is cutting rates, and housing activity is fine - so I don't expect a recession in the next 12 months.

Best to all