Thursday, October 03, 2019

Goldman: September Payrolls Preview

by Calculated Risk on 10/03/2019 03:45:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 150k in September, compared to consensus of +146k. While employment surveys weakened further on net, their levels are still consistent with above-potential job growth. …

We estimate a one tenth decline in the unemployment rate to 3.6%. …
emphasis added
CR Note: It will be important to adjust for decennial Census hiring. Ex-Census the Goldman forecast is for about 135K jobs.