Friday, September 27, 2019

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 2.0%

by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2019 11:19:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

The data sliced 0.3pp from 3Q GDP tracking, bringing us down to 1.9% qoq saar. [Sept 27 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.1% for 2019:Q3 and 1.8% for 2019:Q4. [Sept 27 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 2.1 percent on September 27, up from 1.9 percent on September 18. [Sept 27 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be around 2.0% annualized in Q3.