by Calculated Risk on 9/19/2019 10:09:00 AM

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increase 1.3% in August

Existing-home sales inched up in August, marking two consecutive months of growth, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Three of the four major regions reported a rise in sales, while the West recorded a decline last month.

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 1.3% from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.49 million in August. Overall sales are up 2.6% from a year ago (5.35 million in August 2018).
...
Total housing inventory at the end of August decreased to 1.86 million, down from 1.90 million existing-homes available for sale in July, and marking a 2.6% decrease from 1.91 million one year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 4.1-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.2 months in July and from the 4.3-month figure recorded in August 2018.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in August (5.49 million SAAR) were up 1.3% from last month, and were 2.6% above the August 2018 sales rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.86 million in August from 1.90 million in July.   Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was down 2.6% year-over-year in August compared to August 2018.

Months of supply decreased to 4.1 months in August.

This was above the consensus forecast.  For existing home sales, a key number is inventory - and inventory is still low. I'll have more later …