Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Lower YoY Price Gains in July compared to June

by Calculated Risk on 8/28/2019 01:09:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for June were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: June Case-Shiller Results and July Forecast: Phoenix Posts Largest YoY Gains

Annual home price gains continued their gradual slowdown in June, although the pace of those declines has slowed from earlier this year. While prices are still climbing, the rate of annual appreciation appears to have leveled off near its long-term average, after consistently falling from a high point reached in the spring of last year.

Housing demand remains strong as buyers are encouraged by rising wages and by mortgage rates that just keep falling amid growing economic uncertainty. Would-be buyers stand with pre-approved mortgages in hand. However, they’ve become unwilling to pay escalating prices for the relatively low inventory of homes that are on the market and instead are making sellers wait and even drop list prices.
Zillow forecast for Case-Shiller The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 2.9% in July, down from 3.1% in June.

The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to decline to 1.9% YoY in July from 2.1% in June, and for the 10-City index to decline to 1.6% YoY compared to 1.8% YoY in June.