Thursday, August 15, 2019

Earlier: NY and Philly Fed Mfg Surveys

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2019 04:44:00 PM

Earlier from the Philly Fed: August 2019 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to results from the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's broad indicators remained positive, although their movements were mixed this month: The general activity, shipments, and employment indicators decreased from their readings last month, but the indicator for new orders increased. The survey’s future activity indexes remained positive, suggesting continued optimism about growth for the next six months.

The diffusion index for current general activity fell 5 points this month to 16.8, after increasing 22 points in July
emphasis added
Earlier from the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Business activity increased modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the August 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index was little changed at 4.8. New orders increased after declining for the prior two months, and shipments continued to expand. Unfilled orders fell, delivery times were steady, and inventories increased. The employment and average workweek indexes were both slightly below zero, pointing to sluggishness in labor market conditions.
This was above the consensus forecasts for both surveys.  Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through August), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through July) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through July (right axis).

These early reports suggest the ISM manufacturing index will probably increase in August.