Thursday, August 15, 2019

CAR on California: "California home sales perk up in July"

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2019 02:29:00 PM

The CAR reported: California home sales perk up in July for first time in more than a year, C.A.R. reports

The lowest mortgage interest rates in nearly three years helped jump start California’s housing market to post the first year-over-year sales gain and highest sales level in 15 months, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 411,630 units in July, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2019 if sales maintained the July pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

July’s sales figure was up 5.6 percent from the 389,730 level in June and up 1.1 percent from home sales in July 2018 of 407,030.

“Mortgage rates that dipped to the lowest level in nearly three years has helped reduce monthly mortgage payments for the past five consecutive months, giving buyers more purchasing power,” said C.A.R. President Jared Martin. “The boost in demand gave the housing market its first yearly gain since April 2018.”
...
Active listings, which had been increasing year-over-year for the past 15 months, fell 2.1 percent from a year ago.

The decrease in active listings and an increase in home sales contributed to a year-over-year decline in unsold inventory for the first time in 15 months. The Unsold Inventory Index (UII), which is a ratio of inventory over sales, was 3.2 months in July, down from 3.4 months in June and down from 3.3 months in July 2018. The index measures the number of months it would take to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.
emphasis added
Here is some inventory data from the NAR and CAR (ht Tom Lawler).   Note that this is the first YoY decrease in inventory since early 2018.

YOY % Change, Existing SF Homes for Sale
  NAR
(National)
CAR
(California)
Sep-17-8.4%-11.2%
Oct-17-10.4%-11.5%
Nov-17-9.7%-11.5%
Dec-17-11.5%-12.0%
Jan-18-9.5%-6.6%
Feb-18-8.6%-1.3%
Mar-18-7.2%-1.0%
Apr-18-6.3%1.9%
May-18-5.18.3%
Jun-18-0.5%8.1%
Jul-180.0%11.9%
Aug-182.1%17.2%
Sep-181.1%20.4%
Oct-182.8%28%
Nov-184.2%31%
Dec-184.8%30.6%
Jan-194.6%27%
Feb-193.2%19.2%
Mar-191.8%13.4%
Apr-191.7%10.8%
May-192.1%7.4%
Jun-190.0%2.4%
Jul-19NA-2.1%