Friday, July 05, 2019

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5%

by Calculated Risk on 7/05/2019 11:34:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

A widening in the trade deficit and slower than expected inventory build in May were mostly offset by strong vehicle sales in June. On net, the data cut 0.1pp from 2Q GDP tracking, leaving us at 1.7% qoq saar. [July 5 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.5% for 2019:Q2 and 1.7% for 2019:Q3. [July 5 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2019 is 1.3 percent on July 3, down from 1.5 percent on July 1. [July 3 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be around 1.5% annualized in Q2.