Friday, July 19, 2019

Q2 GDP Forecasts: 1.4% to 2.3%

by Calculated Risk on 7/19/2019 11:58:00 AM

From Merrill Lynch:

Strong retail sales in June boosted our 2Q GDP tracking by 0.6pp to 2.3% qoq saar. [July 19 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.4% (qoq ar). [July 17 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.4% for 2019:Q2 and 1.9% for 2019:Q3. [July 19 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2019 is 1.6 percent on July 17, unchanged from July 16. [July 17 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be around 2% annualized in Q2.