Friday, July 19, 2019

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June

by Calculated Risk on 7/19/2019 01:37:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.25 million in June, down 1.7% from May’s preliminary estimate and down 2.6% from last June’s seasonally adjusted pace. Unadjusted sales should show a steeper YOY decline, reflecting this June’s lower business day count relative to last June’s.

On the inventory front, local realtor/MLS data, as well as data from other inventory trackers, suggest that the inventory of existing homes for sale at the end of June should be about 2.6% higher than last June.

Finally, local realtor/MLS data suggest that the median US existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 4.8% from a year earlier.

CR Note: Existing home sales for June are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, July 23rd. The consensus is the NAR will report sales of 5.36 million SAAR.