Thursday, March 28, 2019

Q4 GDP Revised Down to 2.2% Annual Rate

by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2019 08:47:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and annual 2018 (third estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.4 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "initial" estimate issued last month. In the initial estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.6 percent. With this estimate for the fourth quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; personal consumption expenditures (PCE), state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment were revised down; imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were also revised down.
emphasis added
PCE growth was revised down from 2.8% to 2.5%. Residential investment was revised down from -3.5% to -4.7%. This was at the consensus forecast.

This puts 2018 annual GDP at 2.86%, and Q4-over-Q4 GDP at 2.97%.

Here is a Comparison of Third and Initial Estimates.