Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Smaller YoY House Price Gains in January

by Calculated Risk on 2/27/2019 12:30:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for December were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Aaron Terrazas at Zillow: December Case-Shiller Results and January Forecast: Slowing home price gains

For years, the housing market has been anything but “normal” or “balanced.” But as the start of the busy home shopping season looms, someone squinting at the market might be able to find signs of both normalcy and balance as the market continues to cool off after a years-long sizzle.

Annual home price growth, while still rapid in a handful of the most in-demand and/or affordable markets, has fallen to a pace not far off historic norms and feels largely sustainable for now at a national level of 4.7 percent year-over-year in December. That pace is down from 5.1 percent in November, according to the Case-Shiller home price index.
The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to decline to 4.4% in January compared to 4.7% in December.

Zillow forecast for Case-ShillerThe Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to decline to 3.5% YoY in January, and for the 10-City index to decline to 3.2% YoY.