by Calculated Risk on 2/26/2019 09:12:00 AM
Tuesday, February 26, 2019
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3 month average of October, November and December prices).
This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.
Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.
From S&P: Annual Gains Fall to 4.7% to End 2018 According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.7% annual gain in December, down from 5.1% in the previous month. The 10City Composite annual increase came in at 3.8%, down from 4.2% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 4.2% year-over-year gain, down from 4.6% in the previous month.Click on graph for larger image.
Las Vegas, Phoenix and Atlanta reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In December, Las Vegas led the way with an 11.4% year-over-year price increase, followed by Phoenix with an 8.0% increase and Atlanta with a 5.9% increase. Three of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending December 2018 versus the year ending November 2018.
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of 0.1% in December. The 10-City and 20-City Composites both reported 0.2% decreases for the month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.3% month-over-month increase in December. The 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite both posted 0.2% month-over-month increases. In December, five of 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 14 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.
“The annual rate of price increases continues to fall,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Even at the reduced pace of 4.7% per year, home prices continue to outpace wage gains of 3.5% to 4% and inflation of about 2%. A decline in interest rates in the fourth quarter was not enough to offset the impact of rising prices on home sales. The monthly number of existing single family homes sold dropped throughout 2018, reaching an annual rate of 4.45 million in December. The 2018 full year sales pace was 4.74 million.
“Regional patterns continue to shift. Seattle and Portland, OR experienced the fastest price increases of any city from late 2016 to the spring of 2018; in December, they ranked 11th and 16th. Currently, the cities with the fastest price increases are Las Vegas and Phoenix. These are a reminder of how prices rose and collapsed in the financial crisis 12 years ago. Despite their recent gains, Las Vegas and Phoenix are the furthest below their 2006 peaks of any city followed in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices.
The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The Composite 10 index is up slightly from the bubble peak, and up 0.2% in December (SA).
The Composite 20 index is 3.8% above the bubble peak, and up 0.2% (SA) in December.
The National index is 11.9% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 0.3% (SA) in December. The National index is up 51.3% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).
The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.
The Composite 10 SA is up 3.7% compared to December 2017. The Composite 20 SA is up 4.2% year-over-year.
The National index SA is up 4.7% year-over-year.
Note: According to the data, prices increased in 17 of 20 cities month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
I'll have more later.