Friday, February 08, 2019

Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid-2s

by Calculated Risk on 2/08/2019 04:09:00 PM

The BEA has announced that the Q4 advanced GDP report will be combined with the 2nd estimate of GDP, and will be released on Feb 28th.

From Merrill Lynch:

Better than expected trade data were offset by soft manufacturing inventories data, leaving our 4Q tracking estimate unchanged at 2.3%. [Feb 8 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.4% for 2018:Q4 and 2.2% for 2019:Q1. [Feb 8 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.7 percent on February 6, up from 2.5 percent on February 1. [Feb 6 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest GDP in the mid 2s for Q4.