Friday, January 11, 2019

Update on Shutdown impact on January Employment Report; Congress Approves Back Pay for Furloughed Employees

by Bill McBride on 1/11/2019 03:14:00 PM

From the WaPo: Congress approves back pay — eventually — for furloughed federal employees. This measure is expected to be signed by the President.

For the January employment report, this means that the BLS will count all Federal employees as employed in the establishment survey - whether on furlough, or working without pay. So don't expect a negative headline jobs number due to the government shutdown (although some non-government employees will likely lose their jobs if the shutdown continues).

However, in the household report, furloughed employees will be counted as unemployed, so the unemployment rate will probably bump up to 4.0% or 4.1% in the January report (to be released February 1st).