by Calculated Risk on 1/22/2019 10:12:00 AM
Tuesday, January 22, 2019
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.99 million in December
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales See 6.4 Percent Drop in December
After two consecutive months of increases, existing-home sales declined in the month of December, according to the National Association of Realtors®. None of the four major U.S. regions saw a gain in sales activity last month.
Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, decreased 6.4 percent from November to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.99 million in December. Sales are now down 10.3 percent from a year ago (5.56 million in December 2017).
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Total housing inventory at the end of December decreased to 1.55 million, down from 1.74 million existing homes available for sale in November, but represents an increase from 1.46 million a year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 3.7-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 3.9 last month and up from 3.2 months a year ago.
emphasis added
This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.
Sales in December (4.99 million SAAR) were down 6.4% from last month, and were 10.3% below the December 2017 rate.
The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.
The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.
Months of supply was at 3.7 months in December.
For existing home sales, a key number is inventory - and inventory is still low, but appears to have bottomed. I'll have more later ...