Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, New Home Sales (Postponed)

by Bill McBride on 12/26/2018 06:45:00 PM

Note: New Home sales will not be released on Thursday due to the Government Shutdown.

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Higher Today or Tomorrow

Mortgage rates were unchanged in some cases today and higher in others. The discrepancy is a result of the timing of today's market movements. The most important thing to know is that lenders who are unchanged today will almost certainly be higher tomorrow, unless the bond market stages an impressive comeback between now and tomorrow morning.
...
In the bigger picture, the past few days of weakness are complicated. On the one hand, there is an argument to overlook them due to the idiosyncratic nature of holiday season trading. On the other hand, bonds have had 2 stellar months, and some of the movement we're seeing suggests they may be running into their first major correction against those 2 months of strength. In other words, rates have moved lower very nicely for 2 months and they're now threatening to bounce. [30YR FIXED - 4.625-4.75%]
emphasis added
Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 217 thousand initial claims, up from 214 thousand the previous week.

• At 9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for October 2018. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

• At 10:00 AM: POSTPONED New Home Sales for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 560 thousand SAAR, up from 544 thousand in October.