Saturday, December 29, 2018

Schedule for Week of December 30th

by Bill McBride on 12/29/2018 08:11:00 AM

Happy New Year!

Special Note on Government Shutdown: If the Government shutdown continues, then some releases will be delayed. As an example, this week, construction spending will not be released if the government is shutdown.  However, the BLS will release the December employment report as scheduled.

The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the December ISM manufacturing index, and December auto sales.

Also the Q4 quarterly Reis surveys for office and malls will be released this week.

On Friday, Fed Chair Jay Powell, and former Fed Chairs Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen will be interviewed.

----- Monday, Dec 31st -----

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. This is the last of regional manufacturing surveys for December.

----- Tuesday, Jan 1st -----

All US markets will be closed in observance of the New Year's Day Holiday.

----- Wednesday, Jan 2nd -----

10:00 AM: Corelogic House Price index for November.

----- Thursday, Jan 3rd -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 175,000 payroll jobs added in December, down from 179,000 added in November.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 213 thousand initial claims, down from 216 thousand the previous week.

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 58.0, down from 59.3 in November.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The PMI was at 59.3% in November, the employment index was at 58.4%, and the new orders index was at 62.1%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for November. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in construction spending.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for December. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 17.2 million SAAR in December, down from 17.4 million in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the November sales rate.

Early: Reis Q4 2018 Office Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

----- Friday, Jan 4th -----

Year-over-year change employment8:30 AM: Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 180,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.7%.

There were 155,000 jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 3.7%.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In November the year-over-year change was 2.443 million jobs.

Early: Reis Q4 2018 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates.

10:15 AM to 12:15 PM: Federal Reserve chairs: Joint Interview, Neil Irwin of the NY Times will interview Fed Chair Jay Powell, and former Fed Chairs Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.