Friday, December 28, 2018

Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid 2s

by Calculated Risk on 12/28/2018 02:18:00 PM

From Goldman Sachs:

We also lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +2.6% (qoq ar). [Dec 28 estimate)
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.5% for 2018:Q4 and 2.1% for 2019:Q1. [Dec 28 estimate]
emphasis added
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.7 percent on December 21, down from 2.9 percent on December 18 [Dec 21 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest GDP in the mid-2s for Q4.