Saturday, December 01, 2018

Schedule for Week of December 2, 2018

by Bill McBride on 12/01/2018 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is the November employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the November ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, November auto sales, and the October trade deficit.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies on the Economic Outlook on Wednesday.

----- Monday, Dec 3rd -----

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for November.  The consensus is for 57.2%, down from 57.7%.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The PMI was at 57.7% in October, the employment index was at 56.8%, and the new orders index was at 57.4%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for October.  The consensus is for 0.4% increase in spending.

----- Tuesday, Dec 4th -----

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for November.

The consensus is for 17.2 million SAAR in October, down from the BEA estimate of 17.5 million SAAR in October 2018 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

10:00 AM: Corelogic House Price index for October.

----- Wednesday, Dec 5th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for November. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).  The consensus is for 175,000 jobs added, down from 227,000 in October.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for November.  The consensus is for a decrease to 59.0 from 60.3.

10:15 AM: Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, The Economic Outlook, Before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Senate

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, Dec 6th -----

8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 225 thousand initial claims, down from 234 thousand the previous week.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for October from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $54.9 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $54.0 billion in September.

12:00 PM: Q3 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

----- Friday, Dec 7th -----

Year-over-year change employment8:30 AM: Employment Report for November.   The consensus is for 190,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.7%.

There were 250,000 jobs added in October, and the unemployment rate was at 3.7%.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In October the year-over-year change was 2.516 million jobs.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for December).

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit from the Federal Reserve.