Friday, December 07, 2018

Q4 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 12/07/2018 06:01:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

Disappointing construction data sliced 0.2pp from our 4Q GDP tracking down to 2.5%, and a tenth off 3Q GDP down to 3.5%. [Dec 7 estimate].
emphasis added
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.4 percent on December 7, down from 2.7 percent on December 6. The nowcast of fourth-quarter real final sales of domestic product growth decreased from 2.9 percent to 2.7 percent after this morning’s employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.23 percentage points to -0.33 percentage points after the employment report and this morning’s wholesale trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau. [Dec 7 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.4% for both 2018:Q4 and 2019:Q1 [Dec 7 estimate]
CR Note: These early estimates suggest GDP in the mid 2s for Q4.