Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Goldman Forecast on 2019 Rate Hikes

by Bill McBride on 12/11/2018 01:49:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note:

Currently, we see the probability of a funds rate hike at 45% for 2019Q1, 75% for Q2, 70% for Q3, and 60% for Q4 … this represents a 3-hike baseline for 2019. (We recently shifted to this view from our previous 4-hike baseline, mainly because of tighter financial conditions.) The corresponding probability-weighted path … implies 2.0 hikes in 2019, a smaller but still clearly hawkish number when compared to market pricing of 0.7 hikes.
CR Note: Most analysts expect another rate hike will be announced at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting next week (December 19th). However there is a wide range of views on how much the Fed will hike in 2019.