Friday, November 30, 2018

Q4 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 11/30/2018 02:38:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

We continue to track 3Q GDP at 3.5% qoq saar while 4Q GDP is tracking higher at 2.7% [Nov 30 estimate].
emphasis added
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 2.6 percent on November 29, up from 2.5 percent on November 21. [Nov 29 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2018:Q4 stands at 2.5%. [Nov 30 estimate]
CR Note: These early estimates suggest GDP in the mid-to-high 2s for Q4.