Friday, November 30, 2018

NAR 2019 Home Price Forecast Correction

by Bill McBride on 11/30/2018 12:54:00 PM

In the Pending Home Sales release yesterday, the NAR wrote:

Looking ahead to next year, existing sales are forecast to decline 0.4 percent and home prices to drop roughly 2.5 percent.
Forecasting a price decline would be huge news!

However that was a typo in the release. As Andrea Riquier at MarketWatch noted on the NAR forecast (after contacting the NAR):
Home prices WILL NOT DECLINE 2.5%, price appreciation will decline to a 2.5% annual rate.
This is still lower than the 3.1% median home price increase in 2019 that NAR economist Lawrence Yun was forecasting a few weeks.