Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Chemical Activity Barometer Declines in November

by Bill McBride on 11/28/2018 04:35:00 PM

Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.

From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Adds to Signs U.S. Economy May Be Facing More Than a Seasonal Chill

The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), posted a 0.3 percent decline in November on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis. This marks the barometer’s first month-over-month drop since February 2016 and adds to the chorus of growing concern of slowing U.S economic expansion. On a year-over-year basis the barometer is up 2.8 percent (3MMA), a marked slowdown in the pace of growth from earlier this year.
...
Applying the CAB back to 1912, it has been shown to provide a lead of two to fourteen months, with an average lead of eight months at cycle peaks as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The median lead was also eight months. At business cycle troughs, the CAB leads by one to seven months, with an average lead of four months. The median lead was three months. The CAB is rebased to the average lead (in months) of an average 100 in the base year (the year 2012 was used) of a reference time series. The latter is the Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production Index.
emphasis added
Chemical Activity Barometer Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the 3-month moving average for the Chemical Activity Barometer compared to Industrial Production.  It does appear that CAB (red) generally leads Industrial Production (blue).

The year-over-year increase in the CAB has softened recently, suggesting further gains in industrial production into 2019, but at a slower pace.