Friday, October 19, 2018

Q3 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 10/19/2018 02:42:00 PM

The BEA is scheduled to release the advance estimate of Q3 GDP on Friday, Oct 26th. The early consensus is real GDP increased 3.3% on an annualized basis in Q3. Here are a few forecasts:

From Merrill Lynch:

We expect 3Q GDP growth of 3.4% in the advance release next week. [Oct 19 estimate].
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged on a rounded basis at +3.5% (qoq ar). [Oct 19 estimate]
From Nomura:
We expect real GDP growth to increase solidly by 3.4% q-o-q saar in Q3 [Oct 19 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 3.9 percent on October 17, down from 4.0 percent on October 15. [Oct 17 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.1% for 2018:Q3 and 2.4% for 2018:Q4. [Oct 19 estimate]
CR Note: It looks like GDP will be in the 3s in Q3.