Friday, October 05, 2018

Q3 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 10/05/2018 03:51:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

We continue to track 3Q GDP at 3.7% qoq saar as stronger than expected vehicle sales were offset by weaker core capital goods shipments [Oct 5 estimate].
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by two tenths to +3.3% (qoq ar) [Oct 5 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.1 percent on October 5, unchanged from October 1. [Oct 5 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.3% for 2018:Q3 and 2.8% for 2018:Q4. [Oct 5 estimate]
CR Note: It looks like GDP will be in the 3s in Q3.