Friday, August 10, 2018

Q3 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 8/10/2018 04:57:00 PM

It's early in the quarter, but here are a few forecasts:

From Merrill Lynch:

We continue to track 4.1% for 2Q GDP. Growth should ebb to a still-robust 3.4% in 3Q. [Aug 10 estimate].
emphasis added
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.3 percent on August 9, down from 4.4 percent on August 3. [Aug 9 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2018:Q3 stands at 2.6%. [Aug 10 estimate]
CR Note: Since it is early, the range of estimates is wide.  These estimates suggest real annualized GDP in the 2.6% to 4.3% range in Q3.