Friday, August 03, 2018

July Employment Report: 157,000 Jobs Added, 3.9% Unemployment Rate

by Bill McBride on 8/03/2018 08:42:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 157,000 in July, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, in manufacturing, and in health care and social assistance.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised up from +244,000 to +268,000, and the change for June was revised up from +213,000 to +248,000. With these revisions, employment gains in May and June combined were 59,000 more than previously reported.
...
In July, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 7 cents to $27.05. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 71 cents, or 2.7 percent.
emphasis added
Payroll jobs added per monthClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the monthly change in payroll jobs, ex-Census (meaning the impact of the decennial Census temporary hires and layoffs is removed - mostly in 2010 - to show the underlying payroll changes).

Total payrolls increased by 157 thousand in July (private payrolls increased 170 thousand).

Payrolls for May and June were revised up by a combined 59 thousand.

Year-over-year change employmentThis graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In July the year-over-year change was 2.400 million jobs.

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment rates The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged in July at 62.9%. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.   A large portion of the recent decline in the participation rate is due to demographics.

The Employment-Population ratio increased to 60.5% (black line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate decreased in July to 3.9%. 

This was below the consensus expectations of 190,000 jobs, however the previous two months combined were revised up by 59,000.  A solid report.

I'll have much more later ...