Thursday, August 16, 2018

Housing Starts at 1.168 Million Annual Rate in July

by Bill McBride on 8/16/2018 08:40:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,168,000. This is 0.9 percent above the revised June estimate of 1,158,000, but is 1.4 percent below the July 2017 rate of 1,185,000. Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 862,000; this is 0.9 percent above the revised June figure of 854,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 303,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,311,000. This is 1.5 percent above the revised June rate of 1,292,000 and is 4.2 percent above the July 2017 rate of 1,258,000. Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 869,000; this is 1.9 percent above the revised June figure of 853,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 410,000 in July.
emphasis added
Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.

Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) increased slightly in July compared to June.   Multi-family starts were down 12% year-over-year in July.

Multi-family is volatile month-to-month, and  has been mostly moving sideways the last few years.  This is the bottom of the range.

Single-family starts (blue) increased in July, and were up 2.7% year-over-year.

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

 The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then - after moving sideways for a couple of years - housing is now recovering (but still historically fairly low).

Total housing starts in July were well below expectations, and starts for May and June were both revised down.

I'll have more later ...